Data Vintages and Measuring Forecast Model Peformance

J O H N C . R O B E R T S O N A N D E L L I S W . T A L L M A N Robertson is a visiting scholar and Tallman is a senior economist in the macropolicy section of the Atlanta Fed’s research department. They thank Lucy Ackert and Mary Rosenbaum for comments, Robert Parker and Bruce Grimm of the BEA for the NIPA time series data and comments and insights into the bureau’s data revision process, Glenn Rudebusch and James Hamilton for the CLI time series data used in their studies, and Amanda Nichols for research assistance.